Adapting rainfed rice to climate change: a case study in Senegal

Rainfed crop production predominates in West Africa. Rice is an important staple food, especially Senegal. The scope for increase rice under irrigated conditions uncertain. therefore a key component regional food security impelling agronomists to assess climate change impact on rainfed yield and design ideotypes suited future scenarios. DSSAT CSM-CERES-Rice model was thus calibrated evaluated 19 agronomic experiments conducted 2012, 2013, 2014, 6 locations, with 21 cultivars two fertilization levels (20 80 kg N ha−1). Simulations were then carried out the forced downscaled projections of seven models, without considering atmospheric [CO2], using ensemble global circulation models Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 RCP8.5). Simulated divided by over century RCP8.5 stagnated RCP2.6. Elevated [CO2] significantly increased yields, but this effect could not offset decline due elevated temperatures. Cultivars longer vegetative phases greater temperature tolerance better adapted than current cultivars. Using these new recommended rate (80 ha−1) change. For first time, we bring together study based process-based handling response large set field up-to-date (i) provide useful insights into plausible impacts Senegal (ii) identify cultivar characteristics relevant adaptation possible climates. Our findings will help priorities breeding resilient region.